Satellite Photos Show Iran Expanding Missile Production: Assessed by American Researchers

Recent satellite imagery has revealed significant expansions at two critical Iranian ballistic missile facilities. This development is closely linked to an October 2022 agreement in which Iran committed to supplying missiles to Russia, a country actively seeking such weaponry for its ongoing war against Ukraine. 

Summarized Insights:

• Iran expanding missile facilities.

• Linked to Russia missile supply.

• Over 30 new buildings.

• Concerns over regional stability.

The expansion, analyzed by American researchers, indicates a strategic move to bolster Iran's missile production capabilities, raising international concerns.

Commercial satellite firm Planet Labs captured images of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April. 

These images showcase over 30 new buildings at the sites, both situated near Tehran. 

The structures are surrounded by substantial dirt berms, a protective measure to prevent explosive chain reactions among highly combustible materials.

Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and Decker Eveleth from the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) led the analysis of the satellite images. 

Their findings suggest that the expansions, which began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, aim to significantly enhance missile production capabilities.

Iran already possesses the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, with over 3,000 missiles, including models capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads. 

The expansion of Modarres and Khojir facilities is intended to boost the production of these conventional ballistic missiles. 

Additionally, some new buildings are expected to double the production of drones, which Iran plans to sell to Russia and supply to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

The United States has expressed concern over any increase in Iran's missile or drone production. U.S. officials have highlighted the role of Iranian drones in sustaining Russia's military actions against Ukrainian cities and emphasized the threat posed to Israel by Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah. 

Although the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Security Council have declined to comment on the researchers' analysis, the U.S. has implemented various measures, including sanctions, to limit Iran's missile and drone production and exports.

Shahid Modarres and Khojir facilities are under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which plays a pivotal role in Iran's missile and nuclear programs. 

The IRGC oversees extensive segments of Iran's economy and reports directly to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

The Modarres facility, in particular, has a long history with Iran's missile program and is considered by some experts as its birthplace. 

In 2011, an explosion at the Modarres facility destroyed a large area associated with solid fuel missiles, resulting in the death of 17 IRGC officers, including Gen. 

Hassan Moqaddam, a key figure in Iran's ballistic missile program. 

The recent construction efforts and the inclusion of dirt berms reflect lessons learned from past incidents, aiming to enhance safety and minimize risks.

The expansion of Iran's missile production capabilities has significant implications for regional stability. 

Tehran's enhanced production capacity not only supports its strategic alliances with Russia, Yemen's Houthis, and Hezbollah but also increases the potential threat to neighboring countries and heightens tensions with the United States and its allies.

The satellite images and subsequent analysis by American researchers underscore Iran's ongoing efforts to expand its missile production infrastructure. 

As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, these developments warrant close monitoring and proactive measures by the international community to address the potential risks associated with Iran's growing missile capabilities.