US and China Hold First Nuclear Threat Talks Over Taiwan in Five Years

In a significant development, the United States and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks in March for the first time in five years. 

The talks, aimed at addressing concerns over potential nuclear threats, took place amid rising tensions over Taiwan. 

According to two American delegates who attended, Chinese representatives assured their US counterparts that they would not resort to nuclear threats over the Taiwan issue.

The Chinese delegation, consisting of scholars and analysts including several former People's Liberation Army officers, reassured the US that they believed they could prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without needing to deploy nuclear weapons. 

“They told the US side that they were absolutely convinced that they are able to prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons,” said David Santoro, the US organizer of the Track Two talks.

Track Two talks, which involve former officials and academics, allow participants to speak with authority on their government's position without being directly involved in official policy-making. 

This approach can facilitate dialogue on sensitive issues. 

The recent discussions in a Shanghai hotel conference room marked a continuation of a two-decade-long dialogue on nuclear weapons and posture that had stalled after the Trump administration cut funding in 2019.

The US delegation included six delegates, comprising former officials and scholars, who engaged in the two-day discussions. 

While the State Department did not participate directly, it acknowledged that such Track Two talks could be “beneficial,” though they cannot replace formal negotiations. 

A State Department spokesperson noted that formal negotiations require participants to speak authoritatively on highly compartmentalized issues within the Chinese government.

The talks occurred against a backdrop of significant economic and geopolitical friction between the US and China. 

Both nations have accused each other of bad faith dealings, further complicating their relationship. 

Although Track One talks over nuclear arms briefly resumed in November, they have since stalled, with US officials expressing frustration over China's response. 

The Pentagon has expressed concerns about China's growing nuclear arsenal, estimating a more than 20% increase between 2021 and 2023, and suggesting that China might consider nuclear use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan threatened the Chinese Communist Party's rule.

The semi-official discussions in Shanghai were the first to address nuclear weapons and posture in detail since the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Prior to this, discussions had resumed on broader security and energy issues. 

The importance of these talks is underscored by the Pentagon's estimates that China currently has around 500 operational nuclear warheads, with projections that this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030. 

This compares to the 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed by the US and Russia, respectively.

China has been modernizing its nuclear arsenal since 2020, including the production of next-generation ballistic missile submarines, testing hypersonic glide vehicle warheads, and conducting regular nuclear-armed sea patrols. 

These developments have established China as a major nuclear power, capable of delivering nuclear strikes from land, air, and sea—components of the so-called “nuclear triad.”

As the US and China navigate their complex relationship, the resumption of these nuclear talks is a step towards addressing one of the most critical issues facing both nations. 

The reassurances provided by the Chinese delegation could be a pivotal moment in reducing the risk of nuclear escalation over Taiwan, though much work remains to be done through both Track Two and formal Track One negotiations.